Tag:forecasting

All the articles with the tag "forecasting".

• The Forecast Metric That Hides the Failure

  Published:19 Sep, 2026

  • 22 min read

  A volume weighted error of 7.6 percent and a net bias of 0.2 percent can describe a forecast that loses to a seasonal naive on 77 of 116 slow moving series. The same weighting is applied twice more upstream.

• Are Tabular Foundation Models Worth the Hype? My Bet Is Yes - but Not for the Reason You Think

  Published:29 Apr, 2026

  • 17 min read

  Tabular foundation models are a real shift, but the durable bet is about information sets, task breadth, and synthetic priors - not easy benchmark wins.