Tag:time-series
All the articles with the tag "time-series".
The Forecast Metric That Hides the Failure
A volume weighted error of 7.6 percent and a net bias of 0.2 percent can describe a forecast that loses to a seasonal naive on 77 of 116 slow moving series. The same weighting is applied twice more upstream.
Calendar Features for TabPFN Time Series: Geometry, Encodings, and an Open Edge Case
TabPFN-TS turns forecasting into a table-plus-features problem. A 24-hour edge case shows why geometry, checkpoint compatibility, and release evidence are separate gates.
Aeon Periodograms for Unequal-Length Time Series
How Aeon's PeriodogramTransformer pads unequal-length collections, why its list and 3-D branches need parity, and what one case study teaches.
Fourier Smoothing in Aeon: Symmetry, Cutoffs, and Better Tests
A bounded Aeon DiscreteFourierApproximation case study shows how conjugate symmetry, passband gain, and cutoff semantics expose concrete Fourier failure modes.
Your ACF Can Be Right While Its Confidence Interval Is Wrong
A missing-data bug in statsmodels left ACF estimates unchanged while confidence intervals and Ljung-Box statistics used the wrong sample size.